Virgin to run Manchester - London every 20 minutes

[martinhodgson]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/4937776.stm

The one question to me is - how? Surely they don't have enough capacity without a massive investment in new Pendolinos or HST2?

[mattvince]

The one question to me is - how? Surely they don't have enough capacity without a massive investment in new Pendolinos or HST2?

It's a question of greater reliability leading to greater capacity. Virgin knows that with a West Coast knocking on the door of 90% punctuality, and the Pendolino fleet coming good in the reliability stakes, that they can afford to cut the turnaround times. Throw in a bit of 135mph running to knock a few more minutes off the schedule and you can free up enough units to run the extra train each hour. It's about making a more efficient use of the existing sets, which makes good business sense, in that it means expensive Pendolinos are moving passengers rather than sitting idle.

The infrastructure is the real constraint, but 2008 is significant in that it marks the completion of the Trent Valley four-track works, so sufficient extra capacity should be available then.

[electric]

The infrastructure is the real constraint, but 2008 is significant in that it marks the completion of the Trent Valley four-track works.

Don't you mean 2028

[BR7MT]

I am slightly dubious about the possibilities of them getting new Pendolino sets (as suggested in that report). They will have to be built abroad if the DfT give the go-ahead, as Alstom do not have a manufacturing facility in the UK any more.

Regards,

Dan

[jpantera]

Its all depending on 98% reliability from the pendo sets something which may be acheivable but bad if one goes out of service with say accident damage.

[45002]

I think Virgin trains are pushing there luck capacity Wise

Manchester London every 30 minutes would be better and given they want

to increse Birmingham to London from every 30 minutes to 20 minutes

Virgin are pushing there Luck

Poor old WCML cant cope now

MARTIN

[phat2003uk]

Freight is surely going to suffer...

[mattvince]

Manchester-London is already every half-hour, although I agree that Birmingham-London might do with 20min frequency. It all depends on the loadings - if the Birminghams can manage with half-hourly all-day service (don't forget, that represents 4tph anyway, when you count Chiltern) with peak extras, then that's pretty good). Manchester is a different market - the distance is a bit too long for car travel to be competitive, so it's Virgin vs the airlines. The third train each hour is reputedly to be booked via Wilmslow - the present 2tph both go via Stoke, so there is the potential to tap into the market in that corner of Cheshire (very wealthy, with many possibly choosing the conveniance of MIA to driving to one of the other stations), so there is the ability to expand the market. The concentration on Manchester is probably for the better - Virgin are very focused on winning over air travellers, as people who usually fly can be won over to rail easily.

The big capacity issues should be fixed by December 2008: Rugby remodelling and Trent Valley 4-track should solve the big ones left over. Virgin are talking very adamantly about the West Coast being able to pay for the rest of network - clearly implying they want to be a premium-paying franchise, and a sucessful one at that, and if that means running every 20 minutes to Manchester, then unless their business case is wrong, that is what they have to do.

This is exactly the kind of drive we need from our franchises - distinctly lacking in certain other operators - and we should decry them for their boldness. And if it all falls down, no-one can deny them the honour of having "the Guts to Try".

[45002]

The big capacity issues should be fixed by December 2008: Rugby remodelling and Trent Valley 4-track should solve the big ones left over. Virgin are talking very adamantly about the West Coast being able to pay for the rest of network - clearly implying they want to be a premium-paying franchise, and a sucessful one at that, and if that means running every 20 minutes to Manchester, then unless their business case is wrong, that is what they have to do.

This is exactly the kind of drive we need from our franchises - distinctly lacking in certain other operators - and we should decry them for their boldness. And if it all falls down, no-one can deny them the honour of having "the Guts to Try".

Still wont work Virgin are pushing there luck

Virgin allso wants to Run Glasgow to London Every 30 minutes and increse

Liverpool to London as well In there long term plans

What about Freight,Poor old Freight is getting pushed out by Virgin

Silverlink would love to Increase there Services

Centro in the West Midlands want to Increase Local Servives

Between Wolverhampton,Birmingham and Coventry they cant

Virgin may be doing a good job But they seam to forget over TOC,s and

Freight Want more paths and increase there service on the WCML Too

This is exactly the kind of drive we Dont need from a franchises

and even if The big capacity issues are be fixed by December 2008 which

is very unlikey The still One Big Bottleneck on the WCML and that called

Birmingham New street

MARTIN

[ntanswell]

I reckon they will be able to pull it off, with the new capacity & increased pendolino avalibility. As for freight, doesn't the WCML have slow and fast lines on most of the sections up to Manchester? Putting freight on lines passed for 125mph is ridiculous, confine it to the slow lines as I am sure Virgin passengers won't be happy crawling along at 40mph behind a Freight all the way from Rugby to Crewe!

Nathan

P.S 45112: I don't think Virgin will route the extra Manchester trains via Birmingham, I would of thought they would go via the Trent Valley?

[45002]

I reckon they will be able to pull it off, with the new capacity & increased pendolino avalibility. As for freight, doesn't the WCML have slow and fast lines on most of the sections up to Manchester? Putting freight on lines passed for 125mph is ridiculous, confine it to the slow lines as I am sure Virgin passengers won't be happy crawling along at 40mph behind a Freight all the way from Rugby to Crewe!

Nathan

P.S 45112: I don't think Virgin will route the Valley?

They allread run 1 train a hour from London to Manchester via Birmingham

So London to Manchester is allready 3 an hour ,Just about,

and it nothink to do with extra Manchester trains via Birmingham

As i said ofter TOC,s and Freight operator want to Increase

There services,But cant because Virgin want More Paths

And lets not forget that Big bottleneck called Birmingham New Street

Delays in Birmingham and the West Midlands can cause and Do

delay Trains up and down the WCML,Especially Between Rugby and London

If only all the TOC,s and freight operator could work together to increase services,now wouldnt

that be a good thing, wouldnt it

MARTIN

[250787]

They allread run 1 train a hour from London to Manchester via Birmingham

No they dont

[45002]

They allread run 1 train a hour from London to Manchester via Birmingham

No they dont

Whoops Yes you right i was thinking of Saturdays

0706,0811,0910,1110,1210,1310,1510,1610,1710,1910,London to

Manchester via Birmingham and stoke and Vice Versa

MARTIN

[mattvince]

Aspiring to enhanced local services is all well and good Martin, but it doesn't have a major impact on the revenue flow. Going to 3tph on the Manchester market could well have a major impact on revenue, one that could offset the cost of funding the heavily-subsidised PTE local services. Virgin's estimates of growth are pretty phenomenal - they're talking of running out of capacity within 5 years - even with the December 2008 timetable. So unless the extra capacity is provided, then that growth will be lost. There is a lot which can be done to local services in Birmingham - platform extensions to start off with. Centro, to be honest, have more important issues to deal with - Twirly Passes and the small matter of the £384m Metro extension spring to mind.

Freight is an issue, but less of one with the Trent Valley four-tracking.

No-one is squeezing anyone else out - Virgin have the ability to exploit the capacity, unlike the other operators who lack the resources. And it is all agreed at the National Timetable Conference, some 18 months to two years before the timetable comes into operation.

[45002]

Aspiring to enhanced local services is all well and good Martin, but it doesn't have a major impact on the revenue flow. Going to 3tph on the Manchester market could well have a major impact on revenue, one that could offset the cost of funding the heavily-subsidised PTE local services. Virgin's estimates of growth are pretty phenomenal - they're talking of running out of capacity within 5 years - even with the December 2008 timetable. So unless the extra capacity is provided, then that growth will be lost. There is a lot which can be done to local services in Birmingham - platform extensions to start off with. Centro, to be honest, have more important issues to deal with - Twirly Passes and the small matter of the £384m Metro extension spring to mind.

Freight is an issue, but less of one with the Trent Valley four-tracking.

No-one is squeezing anyone else out - Virgin have the ability to exploit the capacity, unlike the other operators who lack the resources. And it is all agreed at the National Timetable Conference, some 18 months to two years before the timetable comes into operation.

You need a Increase in

Local Services to feed the Intercity routes and i still think some TOC,s want

parts of the Network just for themselfs at the expence of Local services

and Freight traffic,Anyway Matt

you make some good points there only problem is as i see it

The capcity in

Birmingham New Street and West midlands area allready at breaking point and the chaos it can cause to the WCML if

somethink goes wrong There,s a breakdown,late running trains and so on

I think there are trying to increase Capcity on part,s of WCML at the expence of the

West Midlands area.

MARTIN